kepler

Pick up a few online courses or books on machine learning and dig through the Kepler data archive[2].

Since most planets found by kepler were much larger than earth, it seems 10^-2 is a reasonable guesstimate.

Assume the plane needs to be within 1 degree from the line joining the star and kepler.

Yup, but as others said it might be better since Kepler doesn't detect all orbital planes.

I guess with Kepler you're safe for the next couple of thousand years, unless we find something much closer.

This is why Kepler mostly finds molten rock planets and gas giants.

Indeed, Kepler covers only 0.25% of the sky, and is only capable of detecting systems that are edge-on (around 0.47% probability for Earth-like planets)[1].

Missions like Kepler are what finally set me against human space flight.

It would be a function of size of the planet, size of the star, radius of the orbit and distance of star from kepler.

For every star Kepler has detected a planet around, there's a hundred more stars in its field of view with planets it can't see.

This is because Kepler can only detect planets which lie in the same plane as earth and the star so the planet occults the star.

You have to understand that the Kepler mission was not designed to figure that out, it was designed just to figure out if planets were common.

From Wikipedia[2]: "four, including Kepler-296f, were less than 2 1/2 the size of Earth and were in habitable zones where surface temperatures are suitable for liquid water." These figures give us an approximate sense of the number of planets that occult their host star, as a proportion of the number of stars surveyed.

It's jarring to think that if intelligent life were on Kepler 452-b and observing Earth, we're so far away that they would be seeing our "civilizations" in 615 AD: shrinking global population as the old Roman and Byzantine empires are overrun by barbarian hordes and Arab conquest, with some pockets of human progress in China.

From a paper on the Kepler project[1]: "Kepler has observed over 156,000 stars simultaneously and near continuously to search for planets that periodically pass in front of their host star (transit)" From the article: "The confirmation of Kepler-452b brings the total number of confirmed planets to 1,030." — and I have verified that this refers specifically to planets confirmed by Kepler, not just planets in total.

> It's jarring to think that if intelligent life were on Kepler 452-b and observing Earth, we're so far away that they would be seeing our "civilizations" in 615 AD: shrinking global population as the old Roman and Byzantine empires are overrun by barbarian hordes and Arab conquest, with some pockets of human progress in China.

In the article they mention that Kepler-438b is likely subject to extreme solar radiation during flares because it's so close to its star.

Can anyone show me where Kepler-452b is on a star chart?

Szpiro, Kepler's Conjecture, John Wiley, 2003.