pollster

At the last election only one pollster saw them at 1% all the others at NA [1].

> The pollster probably doesn't ask a follow-up question of the form, "C'mon, really?

The notion that an election will be an "independent test" of a pollster's predictions the goal they are all <trying to be avoid>.

He was projected to lose by double digits by literally every pollster and odds maker.

It's very interesting that his Chief Strategy guy is a political pollster.

In the latest opinion poll from the most No-friendly pollster[1] 'Yes' is ahead in all age groups apart from the over 60s, where No is way ahead.

Of course pollster know that and try to compensate for this effect but as long as they don't change the sampling method the error for the Pirates will be large.

Despite their methods they do get to miss a lot of folk - those that do not have phones and those that are out working rather than waiting for the pollster to ring their doorbell.

The meta-math is based on the sampling models for each pollster, and the models have to take land line / cell phone demographics into consideration.

The complexities there are all related to increasing the individual pollster's historic performance and simulating the actual election.

There's an apocryphal tale of some pollster asking "do think we should increase welfare" and getting an overwhelming response of "no", but later in the poll asking "do you think we should help more people" and getting an overwhelming "yes".

> According to MS, this campaign came out of a survey where something like 45+% of users didn't know Gmail scans their emails, and 80+% of those didn't approve of itYou think when they brought veteran political campaign pollster Mark Penn [1] to run the anti-Google campaign, he brought political-campaign-style negative ads but left the push polls [2] at home?